Oil Fundamentals Tightening Entering 3Q 2014 with Seasonal Demand Growth Increasing and Geopolitical Risks Impacting Supply Availability

Pages: 13 Published: June 25, 2014 Report Code: GDGE0723VPT

  • Overview
  • Contents
  • Tables
  • Figures
  • Listen

Report depicts the significant increase in seasonal oil demand levels during the second half of the year compared to the first half and potential risks to oil supply that could impact crude oil and product pricing levels. The premium associated with geopolitical supply risk is increasing with continued uncertainty over events occurring in the Middle East specifically the escalation in conflict between the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and the Maliki Government in Iraq as well as the looming deadline between the P5+1 and Iran over the nuclear issue with the interim deadline set to expire on July 20. Report also highlights over key events impacting crude oil supply including upstream maintenance activities and discusses how some unanticipated events can further exacerbate a tight demand / supply situation in the last half of this year. Report also forecast a change in global inventory position in over the last six month of 2014 based on OPEC production quota levels agreed to at their recent meeting and questions whether current available surplus capacity in OPEC would be effective should product / exports from Iraq be pulled from the marketplace due to continued fighting and damage to key export oriented infrastructure facilities in Iraq. Report also reflect market sentiment based on forward crude oil market still in backwardation.


Report provides information and insight on:

Seasonal Global Oil Demand Levels by Quarter for 2012, 2013 and forecast for 2014:

Reflects seasonal increase of approximately 2MMBD in last half of the year compared to first half of the year

Discusses Geopolitical risks now occurring in Iraq, Iran, crude outages in Libya, Nigeria, Sudan, Yemen, pipeline bombing in Colombia and unresolved conflict between Russia & Ukraine, all of which are impacting global oil supply

North Sea field maintenance activities during third quarter reducing light sweet crude oil supplies and possibility of hard to forecast events such as hurricane in Gulf of Mexico that could impact both upstream / downstream facilities

OPEC production levels and is it sufficient to meet increasing demand levels in last half of 2014

U.S. dependence on Middle East crude imports is minimal and can “easily” be replaced

Crude oil price trend over last 18 months and recent impact on prices from heightened geopolitical risks

Reasons to Buy

The report will enhance your understanding of the supply risks over the last half of 2014 and probability of further price increases as Middle East continues to deteriorate

OPEC African production unlikely to increase in 2014 and could further decline in Nigeria

Even as U.S. continues to reduce Middle East imports, price impact to U.S. consumers is based on Global (not regional) events and thus gasoline prices can / will increase from reduced global supply

Highlights market attitude toward current unfolding events and whether there is enough concern given to potential supply disruptions as forward price market is currently in backwardation

Table of Contents

Oil Fundamentals Tightening Entering 3Q 2014 with Seasonal Demand Growth Increasing, Geopolitical Risks Impacting Supply and

Global Oil Demand in Last Half of The Year Higher Than First Half Levels

Crude Prices Impacted by Concerns of Future Supply Disruptions

Planned Upstream Maintenance to Reduce North Sea Production

Unanticipated Event – Hurricanes Impacting Oil Infrastructure

OPEC Production about 700 mbd Lower than 2013 Levels

Is Opec’s Production Quota Reasonable in Last Half of 2014

U.S. Dependence on Middle East Crude Imports is Minimal

Crude Oil Prices Reaction to Recent Events

China – Product Exporter into Asia

List of Tables

Table 1: OPEC Production – mmbd

Table 2: Global Oil Demand & Supply for 2014 (mmbd)

Table 3: U.S. Crude Oil Imports from Middle East (mbd)

List of Figures

Figure 1: Quarterly Global Oil Demand (mmbd)

Figure 2: Geopolitical Risks

Figure 3: 2014 North Sea Production Forecast (mmbd)

Figure 4: Brent and WTI Spot Prices


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