There is no doubt that profound change is occurring in the automotive industry and now more than ever, it is critical to know which sectors will grow rapidly in the coming years and the ones facing an existential threat, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
Mike Vousden, Automotive Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “The simultaneous rise of electric vehicles, autonomous driving, on-board connectivity and mobility-as-a-service has left traditional original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers scrambling to adjust their strategies.”
GlobalData’s wealth of component and sector forecasts clearly point to the autonomous vehicle sector as the growth winner with sales forecast to be 11.26m units at a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76.09% to 2033. The fastest growth is forecast for level 5* autonomous vehicles with a CAGR of 73.30% to 2033, closely followed by level 4** autonomous vehicles at 68.57%.
Vousden added: “Autonomous vehicles use a multitude of sensors to ‘see’ the world around them. Component makers supplying those systems can, unsurprisingly, expect to benefit too.”
GlobalData forecasts that long-range camera vision systems will see a significant 68.49% CAGR, with ultrasonic sensors close behind at 68.49% between now and 2033.
Significant growth for fitments of engines featuring both turbochargers and E-turbos, as seen on the Audi SQ7 and Mercedes-AMG 53 models is also forecasted by GlobalData. Vousden noted that, “While we only forecast modest market volumes of around 4.4m in the period to 2033, that still equates to a CAGR of 49.21%.”
At the other end are sectors likely to see decline in the future, and foremost among them are HID xenon headlights with a CAGR forecast to 2033 of -23.69%. This technology only came to relatively recent eminence as a premium alternative to the halogen bulb in the 2000s, but the falling cost of LEDs and their efficiency advantages are seeing xenons rapidly fall out of favour.
Another technology approaching obsolescence is drum brakes. While they were superseded by disc brakes decades ago, the cost effectiveness of drums meant they still saw high levels of fitment in compact affordable cars. However, as disc brakes trickle down to cheaper cars, GlobalData forecasts a CAGR to 2033 of -7.34% for the humble drum brake.
Vousden concluded: “Betting on the right technology can be a matter of life or death for suppliers. These figures show the sectors likely to see the highest growth over the coming years. Suppliers should build their strategies to ensure they make parts that will be in high demand for years to come.”