As of today’s news (5 November) that Joe Biden is currently on track to become the next US President – provided the final projections hold true;
Frederick Diamond, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, a leading market research company, offers his view on the implications of this historic election:
“UK markets hoping to maintain close trade-relations with their EU counterparts may have cause for celebration because Joe Biden is far less likely to prioritize a UK trade deal, should he be appointed the next US President. If the UK-US trade deal comes to a halt under Biden, the negotiating position of Brussels will be strengthened as the UK will not be able to rely on expanded US trade post-Brexit.
“It is not just at an industry level that people are concerned. GlobalData’s latest consumer survey stats show *49% of UK consumers are currently ‘extremely concerned’ about the economic situation of their country. In these turbulent times, securing a deal is critical for UK businesses and markets in order to maintain consumer confidence moving into 2021.
“Scotch Whisky is one product that will certainly benefit from a US-UK free trade agreement (FTA). Currently, the product has a 25% import tariff in the US, under US law, which is thought to be a ‘retaliation’ against EU airline subsidies, and could be slashed in a post-Brexit UK-US FTA. However, under a Biden Presidency, the EU is considered a more important trading partner for the US, than the UK alone.
“The thought of a Scottish Whiskey getting a tariff cut as a result of a few thousand swing voters in Pennsylvania may seem strange, but the extent to which the UK and US are inextricably linked to the global economy, and potential leaders of those economies, is a very real phenomenon, and should be followed closely”.
* GlobalData’s COVID-19 recovery tracker – UK – week 9 (published 14 October, 2020)