Recently, Brazil has steadily climbed the chart of the top 10 countries with the highest total of COVID19 cases, now ranking number two just behind the US. The epidemiology forecast shows that Brazil has not reached peak and it is likely that the outbreak will continue to worsen there, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
Kasey Fu, MPH, Director of Epidemiology at GlobalData, comments: “Brazil does not follow the same trajectory as China, the US, or Western European markets. Brazil has had a slower start, with the highest recorded daily cases not occurring until three months after the first local transmission (assumed to be when 100 cases were reported).”
Fu continues: “Several factors could have contributed to the slow start in Brazil. First, testing capabilities may not be sufficiently developed during the early weeks to detect cases. Second, geographical distance from China, where the virus first originated, may have lessened direct introductions.
“Indeed, the presumed first cases of confirmed COVID19 in Brazil had travelled from Europe. Lastly, while the science is still speculative, the warm weather in South America in February and March may have slowed the transmission of respiratory infections early on.”
There are also concerns about the accuracy of the confirmed case count, as alternative measures such as excess mortality and news stories of overflowing morgues show that official case counts are likely to be underestimations.
Fu concludes: “Even if peaks are reached this week, as signified by the running average model, it will take until August and September 2020 for cases to decrease to near zero for Brazil. The pandemic will have far reaching consequences in both health measures and economic impacts for Brazil.”