The gastric and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (G/GEJAC) market is expected to grow from $1.6bn in 2019 to $3.9bn in 2029 across the eight major markets (8MM*) at a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029’, states that growth will be driven by the anticipated label expansions Opdivo and Keytruda, the arrival of novel HER-2 targeting agents and the emergence of novel biomarker-driven therapies. The report projects nine novel agents to enter the market until 2029.

Miguel Ferreira, MSc, Oncology and Hematology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Before 2010, G/GEJAC lacked targeted therapies to allow for sequential treatment. The arrival of Herceptin and Cyramza allowed this new treatment approach which has been supplemented with the arrival of Opdivo and Keytruda. However, treatment outcomes remain below the expectation.”Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData believe that novel therapies will only be able to provide incremental improvements to survival. However, the expansion of immunotherapies into combination treatments, primarily Opdivo, could result in the most significant impact for the general G/GEJAC population. In fact, Opdivo sales are projected to become the new market leader with a CAGR of 47.4% by 2029.

Ferreira concludes: “Herceptin is the current market leader, however after 2019 all markets have reached the scheduled patent expiry which will result in a significant loss in revenue for Roche. This will be further potentiated by the arrival of novel HER-2 targeting agents that address the limitations of Herceptin in this patient population.”

*8MM = The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and China