The idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) market was valued at $2.5bn in 2019 across the seven major markets (7MM*), and is expected to grow to $3.6bn by 2029 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to the company’s latest report: ‘Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2029 ’ the main drivers of the growth will be the launches of new pipeline agents and increasing use of combination therapy.

The most important driver of growth in the IPF marketplace will be the launches of six new pipeline agents: Galapagos’ ziritaxestat, Fibrogen’s pamrevlumab, Roche’s PRM-151, Galecto’s TD-139/GB-0139, BMS’ Celgene’s CC-90001, and Liminal Bioscience’s PBI-4050. The drugs in the late-stage IPF pipeline target different mechanisms, with the intention of slowing or possibly reversing fibrosis.

Tiffany Chan, Immunology Analyst at GlobalData, explains: “The IPF disease space has been challenging for drug developers for several reasons. To start, many promising candidates were based on animal model data (the bleomycin mouse model) but have not shown sufficient efficacy in subsequent human clinical trials. In some cases, the efficacy seen in pre-clinical animal studies has yet to translate to human subjects. Additionally, other well-known immunology therapies such as Enbrel (entanercept), have not shown efficacy in IPF patients.”

Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData are cautiously optimistic that the late-stage pipeline agents could provide their patients with safer and more efficacious treatment options.

Chan adds: “A major barrier for growth will be the patent expiries of Esbriet and Ofev across all 7MM. These generics will provide a less expensive alternative to its branded counterparts. The high cost of current treatments and anticipated high cost of future treatments will limit their uptake, particularly in cost-conscious markets that are facing austerity measures.”

KOLs interviewed by GlobalData note that an increasing proportion of patients receive therapy as part of a clinical trial rather than through commercial means.

Chan concludes: “IPF remains an area of high unmet clinical need. Both Ofev and Esbriet have been shown to slow the progression of the disease but ultimately do not improve IPF’s fatal prognosis. With only two marketed therapies the disease offers a relatively untapped market for drug developers, especially given the high rate of treatment discontinuation.”

*7MM = The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan.