Low level of innovation and generic competition to result in the neuroendocrine tumor market growing only 0.9% by 2030, says GlobalData

The market for neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) – a rare type of tumor where cancerous growth can begin in any cell within the hormone or nervous system – is expected to see a very slow 0.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade in the world’s eight major markets (8MM*) due to substantial generic erosion and low levels of innovation, according to GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company notes that this may turn around after 2030 with the development of molecules currently in the early-stage pipeline.

According to GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Neuroendocrine Tumors – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030’, the NET market will grow from $3.11bn in 2020 to $3.41bn in 2030 across the 8MM.

Sakis Paliouras, PhD, Senior Oncology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The most ground-breaking development in the treatment of patients with NETs has been the emergence of peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT), with the FDA’s approval of Novartis’ Lutathera in 2018. Lutathera has tackled a distinct unmet need for patients progressing on somatostatin analogs and has been very commercially successful so far. GlobalData forecasts the drug to grow further, reaching $699m in peak sales.”

GlobalData expects five pipeline agents to receive marketing authorization in the next decade. Of these, Isotopen Technologien Munchen’s (ITM) PRRT molecule Solucin and Junshi Bio’s immune checkpoint inhibitor Tuoyi are forecast to see the highest clinical use. Furthermore, the newly approved kinase inhibitor Hutchmed’s Sulanda is expected to achieve significant commercial success, with $231m in peak sales.

Paliouras continues: “Four currently marketed agents, Novartis’ Sandostatin LAR and Afinitor, Ipsen’s Somatuline Depot, and Pfizer’s Sutent, are responsible for over 80% of this market’s value. All these agents will go off-patent during the forecast period and experience substantial generic erosion, especially easy-to-manufacture compounds Afinitor and Sutent. This is expected to lead to a great decline in market growth that will only be modestly counterbalanced by approvals of pipeline agents and expansions in new markets.”

“Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData believe that among the most important unmet needs are new predictive biomarkers that can match a patient to the most appropriate therapy, as well as the need for additional insight into when it is feasible to stop treatment or re-treat patients with PRRT. The lack of innovation by current late-stage pipeline agents raises the possibility of a true paradigm shift happening after 2030, coming about by molecules that are now in the early-stage pipeline such as alpha-emitting PRRT drugs and antibody-drug conjugates.”

*8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and China

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