Following the news that £2 billion worth of contracts have been awarded to BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce, marking the beginning of the third phase of the submarine nuclear deterrent program, Continuous at Sea Deterrence (CASD);

Madeline Wild, Associate Defense Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, shares her view:

“The Dreadnought program entering its third major phase is a significant milestone, especially given the serious delays over the COVID-19 period. In this period the first vessel, HMS Dreadnought, is expected to begin sea trials, which will act as a tangible and visible sign of progression.

“Despite ongoing delays, the Navy’s ambiguous claim that the vessel will enter service in the ‘early 2030s’ buys industry partners some time to catch up to previous production schedules.

“Meanwhile, the invasion of Ukraine has destabilized the security situation in Europe, heightening tensions and reigniting fears surrounding Russia’s nuclear capabilities. The Royal Navy’s current fleet of Vanguard-class submarines, responsible for maintaining the UK’s nuclear deterrent, have already seen their end-of-service date pushed back by five years—increasing the urgency of Dreadnought’s progression. Moreover, in 2020, two Vanguard vessels were out of action needing urgent repairs, demonstrating the difficulties around maintaining the CASD with such an ageing fleet.

“The UK and US have also been taking steps to reinforce their nuclear deterrent elsewhere. The US budget request for 2023 included funding for the upgrade of bunkers in the UK to make them capable of holding ‘special weapons’ (namely B61 nuclear bombs). The mention of UK holding sites is notable, considering the US withdrew the last of its B61s from the UK in 2008. The facility upgrades will provide the US with greater flexibility in the deployment of the B61 around Europe.”