The atopic dermatitis (AD) market is expected to grow from $6.4 billion in 2020 to $16.8 billion in 2030 in the seven major markets (7MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1%, according to GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company notes that significant growth in this market will be driven by the increase in treatment options for all age groups and severities, as well as the high annual cost of therapy (ACOT) expected for novel agents, such as biologics and Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors.

The company’s latest report, ‘Atopic Dermatitis Market Size and Trend Report including Epidemiology and Pipeline Analysis, Competitor Assessment, Unmet Needs, Clinical Trial Strategies and Forecast, 2021-2030’, reveals that another key factor driving an increase in the AD market is the absence of generic and biosimilar competition for the majority of marketed agents over the forecast period.

Ramla Salad, Healthcare Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Biologics are expected to retain a large market share during the forecast period for the treatment of moderate to severe AD. Dupixent (dupilumab) is anticipated to be market leader with estimated peak sales of $6.2 billion in 2030. Furthermore, it is already known as the gold standard for the treatment of moderate to severe AD across the 7MM.”

GlobalData expects that upcoming interleukin (IL) inhibitors—Adtralza/Adbry (tralokinumab), lebrikizumab, and nemolizumab—will take market share from Dupixent and other immunomodulators over the forecast period as they are all targeting the moderate to severe patient population, with combined 2030 sales of $2.2 billion. Oral JAK inhibitors are also expected to see strong growth during the forecast period with combined sales of $3.5 billion, with Rinvoq (upadacitinib) leading the pack.

Anti-OX40 inhibitor, KHK4083, and sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor (S1PR) modulator, etrasimod, are two new therapies in the late-stage development and hold huge promise.

Salad continues: “Based on insight from key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData, enthusiasm for these late-stage agents is due to their new mechanisms of action and the innovation they would bring to the market; if approved they would both be the first in their respective classes.”

An increasing uptake of topical therapies for the treatment of mild to moderate AD is expected to greatly improve the overall control of flare-ups and consequently decrease the use of traditional therapies such as topical corticosteroids (TCS) and topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCI). Notable therapies include topical JAKs, Opzelura (ruxolitinib) and Corectim (delgocitinib) and phosphodiesterase-4 (PDE-4) inhibitors, roflumilast and Moizerto (difamilast). Peak sales for topical JAK and PDE-4 inhibitors are expected to reach combined sales of $630.6 million.

Salad adds: “The AD market is a very dynamic space as exemplified by the pipeline activity, but there are some barriers to growth which could limit the uptake of these therapies. Pipeline topical JAK inhibitors will be entering a considerably competitive landscape where more expensive options, such as Eucrisa, are struggling to increase patient uptake. While KOLs were excited at the prospect of new pipeline drugs, many of them have a high ACOT, which will prevent uptake. As a result, physicians are likely to continue prescribing TCs, TCIs, and systemic immunomodulators.

“Although these barriers will have some impact on growth, the market is expanding at an impressive rate and ample opportunities exist for developers to further improve the AD treatment landscape for all ages and severities.”

*7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan

**mAb: monoclonal antibody