The diagnosed incident cases of HER2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer in the eight major markets (*8MM) are projected to increase from 107,352 in 2023 to 123,580 in 2033 for invasive HER2+/HR+ breast cancer, and from 59,598 cases in 2023 to 68,846 cases in 2033 for invasive HER2+/HR- breast cancer, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.51% and 1.55%, respectively, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that originates inside the milk ducts of the breast. The most common type of non-invasive (stage 0) breast cancer, which is called ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), is not life-threatening and can be detected in early stages. DCIS refers to abnormal cells that are present in the breast ducts but have not invaded through duct walls into the surrounding breast tissue. The invasive tumors that have grown beyond the ducts or lobules of the breast can metastasize to other parts of the body through the bloodstream and the lymphatic system. Breast cancer is classified based on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and hormone receptor (HR) status.

GlobalData’s latest report, “HER2-Positive Breast Cancer – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast to 2033,” reveals that in 2033, urban China is forecasted to experience the greatest number of diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2+/HR+ breast cancer among the 8MM, totaling 52,693 cases, while Spain is projected to have the lowest count at 4,157 cases. Likewise, for invasive HER2+/HR- breast cancer, urban China is expected to lead with 33,598 diagnosed incident cases, while Spain will have the fewest cases at approximately 2,100.

Bharti Prabhakar, MPH, Associate Project Manager at GlobalData, comments: “Increased breast cancer survival contributes greatly to the prevalence of the disease, and there is a large amount of evidence showing that breast cancer mammographic screening is effective in reducing the disease mortality by 25-31% in women invited for screening, and 38-48% in women screened. The forecast growth in the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of breast cancer will be the result of an increase in the elderly population worldwide, a high disease incidence, increased survival, increased use of HRT in higher-income countries, and increasing survival and incidence in low- and middle-income countries.”

The risk factors for breast cancer have been well-studied. Other than being female and having an increased age, prolonged exposure to endogenous and exogenous sex hormones, such as estrogen and progesterone, gene mutations, and a family history of breast cancer are all related to breast cancer risk.

Prabhakar concludes: “In the US and Europe, changes in prevention and screening programs, compliance with screening programs, access to diagnostic and treatment facilities, the cancer service infrastructure, tumor-site-specific protocols, and the application of evidence-based clinical guidelines will affect breast cancer survival going forward. Trends in other chronic diseases, such as overweight and obesity, and lifestyle risk factors will continue to be the most important causes of breast cancer, and changes in these trends will affect breast cancer incidence, prevalence, and mortality.”

*8MM: The US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK), Japan, and Urban China.