The Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) market is expected to grow from $1.2bn in 2019 to $2.1bn in 2029 across the eight major markets (8MM*) at a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s latest report, ‘Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2029’, states that growth will be driven by the anticipated label expansions of Adcetris and Opdivo, the increased uptake of Keytruda monotherapy in the second and third-line treatment setting and emergence of novel therapies. Furthermore, during the forecast period the increased use of targeted immunotherapies and novel agents are expected to reduce the dependency to chemotherapies in most treatment settings. The report projects four novel agents to enter the market until 2029.

Miguel Ferreira, MSc, Oncology and Hematology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “In spite of the high cure rates in HL, the approval of Adcetris in 2014 redefined the treatment paradigm that historically has been dominated by chemotherapy-based treatment regimens. In addition, the arrival of immunotherapies represented a new option for patients that were intolerant to or had relapsed after multiple lines of Adcetris.”

Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData believe that compared to standard of care, it is difficult to achieve higher response rates with novel therapies. However, the emergence of new combinatorial strategies and reduced reliance on chemotherapy and stem-cell transplant could ultimately provide improvement in overall survival and quality of life aspects. It is projected that the market for chemotherapies will further shrink by 6.6% in terms of total sales by 2029, as new targeted therapies experience an increase in sales.

In light of new approvals anticipated during the forecast period, GlobalData expects the need for better overall cure rates in first-line to be partially addressed. Also, transplant-ineligible patients will benefit from increased treatment options.

Ferreira continues: “Adcetris is the market-defining drug in HL. Therefore, the scheduled patent expiry for Adcetris would cause an offset, which could only be partially counteracted by the increased uptake of PD-1 inhibitors, and potential new entrants.”

Although it is anticipated that Adcetris and its biosimilars will remain as the preferred treatment option in HL, Ferreira concludes: “Merck & Co.’s Keytruda is expected to become the preferred monotherapy option in the relapsed and refractory treatment setting whereas Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo is expected to be the first PD-1 inhibitor to gain approval in the first-line setting. Lastly, Opdivo in combination with Adcetris would become standard of care in salvage treatment without any imminent threat from a competitor combination approval.” 

*8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and China