Countries are beginning to reopen due to economic and social pressures, while keeping an eye on the threat of resurgences. Based on trends observed in Asia, GlobalData epidemiologists expect that there will be resurgences in the US and Europe. However, resurgence in the US and Europe will be bigger, harder to detect, and harder to control.

Kasey Fu, MPH, Director of Epidemiology at GlobalData, comments: “China, Japan, and South Korea experienced COVID-19 outbreaks months before the West did. Since then, these regions have controlled daily new cases to extremely low levels and have re-opened at least parts of their economies. However, we have already seen in the past month that these regions all have experienced resurgences.”

“Compared with these three Asian regions, new cases in the US and Europe are significantly higher. Spain, for example, is still reporting on average over 1,000 daily new cases last week, UK is reporting on average 4,500 daily new cases, and the US is reporting on average 22,500 daily new cases. With background infections still in the thousands in Europe, and tens of thousands in the US, new hot spots are going to be difficult to detect.

“On-going testing problems and lab backlogs will further hinder the timely identification of new hot spots. If authorities cannot detect hot spots in a timely manner, they will be harder to control. Increases in cases that are considered to be “resurgences” in Asia might not even register in the West. This could ultimately result in much larger secondary outbreaks, and extend the overall recovery time.”