The venous thromboembolism (VTE) market is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% from $3.6 billion in 2022 to $4.6 billion in 2032 across the seven major markets (7MM*), forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The growth of the VTE market is expected to be restrained due to the expiration of patents for novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs), which are the standard of care. This will lead to generic erosion throughout the forecast period.

GlobalData’s report, “Venous Thromboembolism: Seven Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis,” reveals that only one late-stage pipeline therapy is expected to come to market during the forecast period: Anthos Therapeutics’ abelacimab. However, the uptake of the drug will be limited by the drug’s subcutaneous/intravenous method of administration, as well as the lack of strong clinical trial data supporting its use.

Sarah Bundra, Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The patent expiries of the NOACs will have a significant effect on the VTE market, as they are the current standard of care for VTE treatment.”

According to GlobalData, the US is the most significant contributor to the VTE market, accounting for 80.8% of sales in 2022 and 83.7% of sales in 2032. The US’ dominant role is primarily due to the higher price tag of US therapeutics as compared with other 6MM and the increased size of the VTE population.

Spain is expected to contribute the least to VTE drug sales: only 1% and 0.9% in 2022 and 2032, respectively. However, Japan will experience the least amount of growth from the beginning to the end of the forecast period, with a CAGR of 0.1% for the VTE treatment population and -0.02% for the VTE primary prophylaxis population.

Bundra concludes: “Japan’s minimal or negative growth is due to the country’s declining VTE patient population, as well as the fact that abelacimab, the only late-stage pipeline therapy projected to launch during the forecast period, is not expected to launch in Japan.”

*7MM: The US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK), and Japan.