Renewable development could be an ideal import exit strategy for Croatia’s power industry ahead of anticipated rising electricity demand, says GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company reveals that Croatia currently imports 100% of its coal, 40% of its gas and 80% of its oil, and has been particularly vulnerable to the rise in fossil fuel prices.

Croatia to meet renewable energy target of 36.4% of total consumption by 2030

GlobalData’s report, ‘Croatia Power Market, 2022-2035’, reveals that onshore wind power capacity in Croatia is expected to be 1.99 GW by 2030, exceeding its target by 0.39 GW, while its solar PV capacity will be 0.77 GW, which meets its target.

Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Croatia’s investment into its wind and solar developments will help the country meet its renewable energy target of 36.4% of total consumption by 2030. Further development in this area would offer the country an ideal exit strategy to reduce its reliance on energy imports. Activities such as increasing its renewable efficiency, upgrading its grid infrastructure, and investing in energy storage solutions would allow the massive capacity overhaul required.”

GlobalData’s report also highlights that annual power consumption in Croatia is expected to reach 20.1 TWh by 2035, but generation will only reach 19.2 TWh. This gap will have to be met with even further expensive imports unless Croatia can develop its own power supply.

Saibasan continued: “Croatia’s generation mix consists of 30.9% of thermal-based power generation, which is a major challenge as its own gas supply is so low. The country could turn back to coal, but high carbon emissions and pollution is already high due to historic coal-based generation, and the rise in fossil fuel prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war makes increasing imports an unattractive option.”

Floating solar PV plants a good option for solar power development

Croatia has huge potential to further develop solar PV technology, as it receives ample sunshine throughout the year. The setback with utility-scale PV projects is that they require large areas of land. The installation of 1 MW solar PV plant requires 4-5 hectares of land, which is difficult to manage in a small country like Croatia.

Saibasan adds: “Croatia may look to install floating solar PV plants in the Adriatic Sea to avoid land utilization by utility-scale solar PV projects. The country’s large-scale untapped renewable sector has also opened new opportunities for market players. The south-western region of Croatia has good amount of solar irradiation, for example, and Croatia’s largest state-owned power company HEP has announced plans to invest around $23 million annually until 2023 to install new capacity of 20 MW per year, as well as to complete 350 MW capacity by 2030.

Solar power, geothermal, and biomass potential in Croatia

Besides solar, there is significant wind potential in the south and south-west coastal regions of the country. The country also has huge potential for geothermal energy in the North, which could be used both for electricity generation and heating. Further, Croatia has significant potential for biomass, as forests cover more than 30% of Croatian territory.”