Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty sees over 200% rise in sales forecasts for Q3 vs Q2, says GlobalData

The sales forecast for Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty has been upwardly adjusted by GlobalData due to anticipated demand for booster shots. The leading data and analytics company has increased its forecasts for Comirnaty’s sales by a phenomenal 190% and 228% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The drug is now expected to see sales totalling $28.4bn in 2022 and $13.4bn in 2023*.

Quentin Horgan, Senior Drugs Database Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The surge in forecast sales for Comirnaty is based upon recent evidence that the drug required booster shots to maintain its efficacy. Studies** have shown Comirnaty’s efficacy steadily declines to around 84% six months after the second dose.”

GlobalData’s report, ‘Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Analyst Consensus Global Drug Sales Forecast – Q3, 2021’, notes that Comirnaty is currently the leading prophylactic vaccine for COVID-19, by forecast sales, and is expected to generate an unprecedented $100bn in sales from 2020 to 2027 – driven by large forecast sales from 2021–2024.

Pfizer/BioNTech submitted a supplemental biologics license application (BLA) to the FDA on 26 August 2021 for the approval of a third dose of Comirnaty as a booster shot for people 16 years and over.

Horgan continues: “The BLA will extend the use of Comirnaty to include adolescents between 12 and 15 years of age in various geographies such as the EU, Japan, the US, and UK. If approved, this will expand the drug’s potential patient population, contributing to driving up forecast sales. This also opens up the possibility to further expand to children under the age of 12, which would be another major driver within the forecast sales for 2022 and 2023.

“Comirnaty’s forecast sales have continued to increase in nearly every quarterly update, and, with sales for the first half of 2021 reaching $19.57bn, it appears Comirnaty is on track to meet these forecasts – as long as it maintains its title as the leading prophylactic vaccine for COVID-19.”

* Prediction made in Q3 2021


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