The 12-month prevalent cases of major depressive disorder (MDD) is expected to increase from 53.37 million cases in 2019 to 55.36 million cases in 2029, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.37% across the eight major markets *8MM. Out of the 8MM, Spain is expected to grow at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.23% (2019­–2029), followed by Italy (0.73%) and the US (0.53%), according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Major Depressive Disorder: Epidemiology Forecast to 2029’, notes that the major drivers for the upward trend of 12-month total prevalent cases of MDD in the 8MM over the next decade may be driven by changes in the population demographics of these markets, rather than an increase or decrease in the 12-month total prevalence of MDD.

Suneedh Manthri, Associate Project Manager of Epidemiology at GlobalData, comments: “MDD is widely recognized as a mood disorder that may lead to a variety of emotional and physical problems. Little is known about the etiology of MDD; however, research suggests that there may be combinations of genetic, biological, environmental and psychological factors that potentially increase the risk of MDD.”

In Spain and Italy, the elderly population are at a higher risk for MDD compared to that in the rest of the 8MM. Therefore, the aging population in Spain and Italy contribute to the increase in the 12-month prevalent cases of MDD in these markets.

The guidelines for MDD diagnosis have changed over time and are becoming broader and more inclusive, so some persons who would not have been diagnosed under the previous guidelines would now be diagnosed with MDD. This epidemiology analysis used the DSM-5 as the diagnostic criteria for 12-month total prevalence of MDD.

*8MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and Canada