The diagnosed incident cases of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the eight major markets (8MM*) are projected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 3.33% from 1.01 million in 2022 to 1.46 million in 2032, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): Epidemiology Forecast to 2032,” estimates that in 2032, urban China will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC in the 8MM, with approximately 900,000 cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases with approximately 35,000 cases. In the five European markets (5EU**), GlobalData estimates there will be 250,000 diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC in 2032.

In 2022, urban China accounted for 53.11% of all diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC in the 8MM due to its large population. In the 5EU, Germany accounted for the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC with approximately 50,000 cases and 24% of all 5EU diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC.

Ana Fernandez Menjivar, Senior Epidemiologist at GlobalData, says: “The main reason for the expected increase in the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC is population growth and aging. Since NSCLC is primarily a disease of older populations, the shift towards older ages, caused by increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates, will lead to an increased burden of lung cancer.

In the 8MM, approximately 45% of cases were diagnosed at stage IV compared to the nearly 21% of cases diagnosed at stage IA or IB. NSCLC is often diagnosed at an advanced stage because this is when symptoms become apparent. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic may have contributed to delays in diagnosis due to lockdowns.

Fernandez Menjivar concludes: “The burden of late-stage NSCLC is high. Stage IV NSCLC is generally more difficult to treat and has a lower chance of survival so improving access to healthcare for early diagnosis, and implementing tobacco control programs, air quality improvements, and occupational safety measures will be crucial to reducing the burden of lung cancer at individual and population levels.”

*8MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and urban China.

**5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.