The autism spectrum disorder (ASD) market is expected to grow from $985.5 million in 2021 to $4.0 billion by 2031 across the seven major markets (7MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.1%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

ASD is a highly heterogenous disorder with a wide range of associated non-core symptoms and severities. While there are many different treatment options used to target the associated symptoms, the majority of these are prescribed off-label, resulting in significant opportunity for the development of targeted therapies.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Autism Spectrum Disorder: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis’, reveals that the main driver of growth will be the launch of ten new pipeline products throughout the 7MM. They have significantly higher expected costs of therapy when compared with the inexpensive generic therapies currently used in the market.

GlobalData has identified that treatment for the core symptoms of ASD, for which there are no approved drugs, is the most important unmet need. GlobalData anticipates that three products targeting the core symptoms of ASD will launch during the forecast period, the most promising of which being Johnson & Johnson’s JNJ-5279. GlobalData forecasts JNJ-5279 will generate global (7MM) sales of approximately $655.9 million by 2031.

Philippa Salter, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData indicated that a product that demonstrates clear efficacy in the treatment of one or more of the core symptoms of ASD, while also being well tolerated, could expect to generate significant uptake, with the potential to be positioned as a first-line agent. However, it is important to consider that not all people with ASD will want to address these symptoms, as they are an important part of their personal identity. As such, any drugs that do target core symptoms will need to be carefully marketed by developers, particularly in the adult population.

“While the launch of 10 pipeline products prior to 2031 in the 7MM will address some of the unmet needs in the ASD market to varying extents, considerable opportunity remains for players looking to enter the ASD market in the future, particularly in markets outside of the US.”

* 7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan