The systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and lupus nephritis (LN) market is expected to grow from $935.9M in 2018 to $1.6bn by 2028 across the seven major markets (7MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s latest report, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Lupus Nephritis: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028, found that the main driver of the growth will be the launch of AstraZeneca’s anifrolumab, J&J’s Stelara, Eli Lilly’s Olumiant, UCB’s dapirolizumab, Roche’s Gazyvaro, and Novartis’ Cosentyx, as well as improved therapeutic option Aurinia’s voclosporin.

Patrick Aiyes, Immunology Analyst at GlobalData, explains: “Although biologics could make up more than 70% of the SLE and LN sales by 2028, their high annual cost is likely to represent a major barrier for physicians prescribing these medications.

“GSK’s Benlysta, through the upcoming release of its subcutaneous (SC) formulation and a label expansion for LN in 2021, will remain the leading biologic franchise for IV and SC combined at the end of the forecast period. Although Roche’s Gazyvaro will be the second approved biological treatment option for LN, GlobalData anticipates that it will have a fast uptake. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData argued that because it is a fully humanized version of Rituxan, Gazyvaro will boast a good efficacy profile with reduced side effects.”

A major trend in the lupus treatment landscape is the reduction in steroid use, and firms are evaluating all current pipeline drugs for their potential in reducing the steroid burden of SLE and LN patients.

Aiyes adds: “In the absence of reliable biomarkers to assess disease activity in SLE and LN clinical trials, companies will continue to target patients with high disease activity to gain market approval. “Companies seeking to compete in the SLE and LN space must embrace the idea to target a smaller subset of the larger lupus population. This approach will best position investigational products for success in the clinic, as they will be studied in more homogenous groups of patients.”

*7MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan