• AI revenue to reach $383 billion in 2030
• Key drivers are the explosion in the volume of sensor data, advanced deep learning models, the emergence of generative AI, and the availability of AI chips.
• China’s AI growth will likely be hindered by limited access to advanced Western chip manufacturing technology and regulatory divergence

The global artificial intelligence (AI) market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.4% from $81.3 billion in 2022 to reach $383.3 billion in 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest thematic report, “Artificial Intelligence,” reveals that the explosion in the volume of sensor data, coupled with the increased sophistication of advanced deep learning models, the emergence of generative AI, and the availability of chips created specifically for AI processes, will all drive growth in AI over the coming years.

Josep Bori, Research Director at GlobalData Thematic Intelligence, comments: “Despite the hype, artificial general intelligence (AGI), or the ability of machines to do anything that a human can and possess consciousness, is still decades away. However, ‘good enough’ AI is already here, capable of interacting with humans, motion, and making decisions. For example, OpenAI’s GPT-3 and ChatGPT models can write original prose and chat with human fluency, DeepMind’s algorithms can beat the best human chess players, and Boston Dynamics’ Atlas robots can somersault. If this evolution continues, it could upend the labor-based capitalist economic model.”

Driven by ethical and political concerns, using AI for facial recognition will lead to conflict in standards and regulatory approaches. This will lead to the break-up of the global supply chain in the AI segment, as is already underway in semiconductors. Ultimately stricter ethical regulation will break the global AI market into geopolitical silos, in isolation from one another.

Bori continues: “The most advanced AI technologies, such as computer vision and generative language models, rely on powerful AI chips. As such, the ongoing US‑China trade dispute, which has led to the US prohibiting exports to China of either AI chips or the tools to manufacture them, will disrupt the competitive landscape. China will lose its AI market dominance unless it can secure access to advanced chip manufacturing technology.“

The ongoing trade dispute between China and the US has negative implications for the global progress of AI technologies. However, China will play a leading role in AI due to its leadership in AI software and IoT technology and its progress in low-end chip manufacturing.

Bori concludes:  “Unless China solves its access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, currently indirectly prevented by the US sanctions, and can manufacture more powerful and miniaturized chips (i.e., on 5 and 3 nanometer nodes), it will struggle in AI in the data center and related fields such as CV.”