Following the news that Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) after 2024 and construct its own orbital outpost;

Francesca Gregory, Thematic Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, offers her view:

“The launch of the ISS in 1998 ushered in a new era of international cooperation in space. The space-race rivalries that had contributed to an expensive and frenzied period of space history became more subdued, as five space agencies constructed a microgravity environment to enhance scientific understanding.

“However, fast forward to 2022, and the ISS, much like the geopolitical landscape, is showing signs of degradation. Russia’s decision to withdraw from the ISS follows the launch of China’s Wentian module for its space station earlier this week, as it pushes through plans to become a space superpower—having been expelled from the ISS in 2011.

“These developments mark the redrawing of geopolitical fault lines within space, which will cause further fragmentation of the emerging space economy. Companies targeting the space economy must navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical space or risk getting caught in the middle. For example, German satellite start-up Kleo Connect saw its low Earth orbit (LEO) aspirations unravel over claims of sabotage, contract breaches, and shadow companies between the European and Chinese divisions of the company.

“Fresh geopolitical tensions will also complicate merger talks between Eutelsat and OneWeb, a deal that would bring together the UK, France, and China. So, while Musk, Bezos, Branson, and Beck will remain protagonists in the unfolding space economy story, this market’s growth will play out along geopolitical fault lines.”