Novo Nordisk’s success in diabetes and obesity drug sales could be impacted by supply chain issues, for the production of its obesity drug Wegovy (semaglutide), unless it can resolve issues with its contract manufacturer says GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company expects Novo Nordisk to successfully overcome the supply challenges surrounding Wegovy in the second half of 2022 and that the drug will likely become a blockbuster therapy for obesity from 2023.

Novo Nordisk reported there was a shortage of the drug as the contract manufacturer in charge of syringe filling, Catalent, halted deliveries due to issues with good manufacturing practices. The company had a penalty from the FDA following the inspection of its Belgian filling plant in October 2021. The plant was presented with a US FDA Form 483, relating to issues around GMP, and this will affect Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy supply as it’s the primary fill/finish supplier for the weight loss drug.

Novo Nordisk predicted fewer patients starting the therapy due to the disruption in the Wegovy supply chain, which undoubtedly led to a weakened Q4 2021, and subsequent H1 2022 result for the therapy.

Akash Patel, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Even with this issue regarding Wegovy, Novo Nordisk has continued to go from strength to strength with the strong clinical results regarding its long-term basal insulin icodec and its oral Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) semaglutide in several other applications, as well as their icodec + semaglutide combination therapy icosema. For 2020, it reported a significantly increased market cap, from $116.3 billion in December 2020 to $199.3 billion in 2021, likely driven by these results from semaglutide’s and icodec’s clinical trials, and the commencement of Icosema’s Phase III trials in Q4 2021, and Novo’s continued dominance in the diabetes and wider metabolic disorders market.”

Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData have reported their enthusiasm for Wegovy, particularly for those patients struggling with weight loss and developing prediabetes with a high risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Wegovy, another form of semaglutide, could likely offer benefits in addition to weight loss, including decreasing insulin resistance and reducing the likelihood of heart disease. This will likely lead to significant market share in the obesity space and drive up the sales for semaglutide (Ozempic and Rybelsus) in the T2D space, establishing it as the leading therapy in among the Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) class.

Patel adds: “Furthermore, semaglutide is in Phase III trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD), likely leading to a dominance in these markets also.”