As the first obesity drug to be approved in Japan in the last three decades, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy is expected to bring a substantial shift in the treatment approach. However, amidst the ongoing supply shortage of the drug leading to delayed launches in various markets, including Japan, Wegovy’s market success is likely to be delayed in the country, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

In March 2023, Japan’s Ministry of Health and Labor Welfare approved Novo Nordisk’s once weekly subcutaneous glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist Wegovy for obesity. Even though other GLP-1 agonists are currently available for obesity treatment in Japan, they are only used for off-label treatment (Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, Victoza, and Rybelsus).

Neha Myneni, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “As the first GLP-1 agonist to be approved for obesity treatment in Japan, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy will certainly gain a competitive edge in the market, which is currently dominated by off-label treatments and anorexigenics, namely Sanorex (mazindol) .”

According to GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center, Japan is the only country to witness a decline in the diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity among the seven major markets (7MM*). The diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity in the country are expected to decrease from 21,317,557 in 2023 to 20,997,520 in 2028, recording a negative annual growth rate (AGR) of approximately 0.8%.

Myneni continues: “Unlike most of the 7MMs, where the obesity rates are increasing at unprecedented rates, Japan is likely to witness a declining trend, supported by healthy lifestyle practices imbibed in people right from their childhood. In such a scenario, Novo Nordisk may be less likely to prioritize Japan over other key European markets to launch its highly sought after drug Wegovy in the short-term.”

GlobalData’s latest report titled “Obesity: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis” reveals that Wegovy is expected to attract a significant chunk of patient share (25%) among drugs available for obesity treatment in Japan by 2031, contributing to the highest share of sales (28.5%).

Myneni concludes: “Wegovy is more likely to become the leading drug for obesity treatment in the country, thereby attracting a substantial market share in the long run. However, a delayed market launch is thereby expected to postpone the market success of Wegovy in Japan, though the drug has indeed created a new milestone in the obesity treatment landscape.”

*7MM: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, and the US.