Following the news that the US Air Force (USAF) will reportedly hold a loyal wingman competition in 2024;

Harry Boneham, Aerospace Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, offers his view:

“Reports that the USAF is advancing its development of manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) capabilities come as little surprise, as the USAF has been exploring the concept for a number of years now through programs such as Skyborg. There are several companies with platforms under development that are likely to feature in the competition, including companies involved with the Skyborg and Next Generation Air Defence NGAD programs.

“Boeing Australia’s MQ-28 Ghost Bat is the furthest along in terms of development and is likely a front runner. Meanwhile, companies such as Kratos could draw from their contributions to the Skyborg program to offer platforms such as the XQ-58 Valkyrie. However, the 2024 deadline floated by the Secretary of the USAF is relatively short, and it is unlikely that companies will be able to contribute to the competition if they are not already developing the technology.

“Whilst the eventual price tag of a US loyal wingman drone has not been revealed—and will not be anytime soon due to its status as a classified program—its price bracket can be inferred. A key selling point for all drones is that they are generally cheaper than manned alternatives, which is an essential characteristic as they are lost at a much higher rate. The Secretary of the US Air Force has commented that an eventual loyal wingman drone should cost less than half of an F-35, in the region of $39 million.

“The US Air Force reportedly envisages a future in which as many as five loyal wingmen drones support a single piloted aircraft, performing missions such as Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), Electronic Warfare (EW), strike, and decoys revealing enemy anti-air positions. Whilst the requirements for the eventual competition have not yet been formulated, given the range of potential missions, and the intention for multiple platforms to fly alongside manned aircraft, there is an opportunity for the operator to further limit the overall cost of the platform.

“By specialising individual platforms with mission specific modules, the value of platforms that are exposed to higher risks can be brought down whilst not limiting the overall capability support available to the manned aircraft’s pilot. For example, platforms serving as decoys that will draw enemy anti-air fire are at greater risk of being damaged or destroyed. It would, therefore, make sense for these platforms to be more attritable, and not equipped with expensive EW or ISR enabling technologies as they would be cheaper to replace, bringing down the cost of the program overall. Going forward, the price point of an eventual loyal wingman drone will be an essential factor in determining the extent of collaboration from international partners.”