With strong results from its SURPASS program for gastric inhibitory peptide/glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GIP/GLP-1) dual agonist Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D), Lilly can expect Mounjaro to gain a significant share of the GLP-1 and wider T2D and obesity markets, says GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company notes that Mounjaro will also threaten Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic (semaglutide), which has a dominant share of the GLP-1 market.

Mounjaro is a once-weekly, subcutaneously administered therapy that presents significant promise for patients with both T2D and obesity. Additionally, trials are underway for the use of Mounjaro for heart failure (HF) patients, which will potentially widen its use to patients with T2D, obesity and cardiorenal disease.

Akash Patel, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “There are therapies in the GLP-1 market that have launched in recent years, such as Lilly’s Trulicity (dulaglutide) and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic (once-weekly, injectable semaglutide) and Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), that have led to substantial competition in the space, and the SURPASS data provides Lilly with the opportunity to become the leading therapy.”

The data for Mounjaro is unprecedented and surpasses the current weight loss benefits that Ozempic presents. Therefore, Mounjaro could potentially overtake Ozempic in sales over the next decade.

Patel adds: “As the data shows, Mounjaro will transform the treatment of obesity, in addition to T2D. The drug will likely be prescribed in combination with other therapies to address additional cardiorenal problems and will progress to becoming a leading GIP/GLP-1 therapy. Furthermore, trials for pediatric patients and heart failure patients are currently ongoing, which will only strengthen Lilly’s position across the wider T2D and cardiometabolic market.”